Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Marcos Maidana will be a fun fight to watch due to the atmosphere and the clash of styles. Mayweather is, of course, the master boxer while Maidana is the pressure-fighter who can be even reckless at times in his aggression and will to win. This is a very easy fight for me to predict, I see it as a mismatch in which Mayweather should take a decisive victory. Physically, Mayweather has the edge in almost everything. He is more used to weighing in at a higher weight, he is faster with a reach advantage, and may also be physically stronger than Maidana. Mayweather also appears to have superior stamina. Maidana has a 7 year age advantage but in this case it may hurt him; Mayweather certainly does not appear old in the ring and, because of his age, Mayweather has acquired many more years of experience in boxing than Maidana. Maidana has the advantage in power but that will be of little use if he cannot land often enough. Maidana simply does not bring anything to the fight that Mayweather is not accustomed to, especially in Mayweather’s recent fights. Maidana is a slower pressure fighter who is open to counters from Mayweather, especially with his looping right hands which Mayweather should see coming. Mayweather is far more skilled and with his advantages should be able to do what he wants and when he wants to do it.
Maidana has a few options but he may not be capable or lucky enough to pull off the huge upset victory. Maidana has to jab his way in while using feints to keep Mayweather guessing. Maidana’s right hands could find a home since they can be wild and unpredictable but the risk is being countered easily if Maidana fails to land. A perhaps safer but less likely to work plan would be Maidana’s left hook. Mayweather often blocks left hooks without much trouble since his right hand is already up for defense but Maidana could land if he feints a hook or jab to the body first, like he did against Adrien Broner in the second round knockdown of their fight. Obviously Maidana also has to fight hard the whole 12 rounds against Mayweather, which is challenging as is without getting too tired. Mayweather will land anywhere that is open but he will almost certainly try to land body shots more often than usual since Maidana has shown a few times that he can be hurt there; most notably in the first round of the Khan fight.
Expect the fight to look similar to Mayweather vs. Baldomir and Maidana vs. Alexander. Maidana is not as big or strong as Carlos Baldomir, though Maidana is faster and more skilled. Maidana also appears improved from when he lost a wide decision to Devon Alexander, however Alexander is also no Mayweather. Alexander looked great that night but Mayweather is much superior defensively while being faster, more experienced, and more accurate than Alexander. Maidana may be better than he was and had decent preparation for Mayweather by fighting Broner but Mayweather is far greater than anyone Maidana has fought.
The fight will feature Mayweather figuring out Maidana early while Maidana does his best to land. He will find himself unable to land while becoming frustrated and fatigued. It may seem competitive early, with a round or two going to Maidana off of aggression but Mayweather should pull far ahead and sweep most rounds to win a dominant victory. The question is if Mayweather wins by wide decision or stoppage. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Mayweather will have his first uncontroversial stoppage since the Ricky Hatton fight nearly 7 years ago. Maidana’s recklessness and lack of speed will allow Mayweather to “tee off” at times and also give Mayweather plenty of counter opportunities, to both the head and body. I pick Tony Weeks to step in and stop it late. Mayweather TKO Maidana.